Stochastic Technoeconomic Model (STEM)

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Abstract: The purpose of the Stochastic Technoeconomic Model is to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in the cost of unit operations on the feedstock logistics cost. The model, which is developed in a spreadsheet using the add-in called @Risk, enables the user to apply Monte Carlo simulation to produce a distribution of feedstock logistics cost. The sensitivity analysis points to how uncertainty in cost drivers impact uncertainty in the feedstock logistics cost distribution. The STEM is a companion model to the BLM (Biomass Logistics Model) as it evaluates cost risk for cases set up to run in the BLM.
Model/Tool Platform:
Excel, @RISK
General Modeling Type:
Hybrid / other: Statistical (Risk and Uncertainty Analysis)
Primary analytical purpose:
Risk/Financial analysis: Analysis of the risks and financial aspects of technology or feedstock implementation.
Secondary analytical purpose:
Techno-economic analysis: Technical and economic analysis of technologies or systems of technologies.
Metric categories:
  • Socio-economic:
    • Process Productivity (conversion-related, e.g., yield)
    • Techno-economic Impact
    • Other Socio-economic (e.g., GDP impact, Investment/NPV)
Geospatial resolution:
County
Temporal resolution:
Years
Laboratory:
INL - Idaho National Laboratory
Principal investigator:
Jason Hansen
Model start year:
2015
Model last updated:
2017
Development status:
Fully Developed - no new updates planned
Level of validation/review:
Internal QA/QC or Peer Review
Links:
Model scope:
Supply chain elements
Biomass Supply
Feedstock Logistics
Conversion
Distribution
End Use
  • Feedstock Types
    • Starch
    • Sugar Crops
    • Oil Crops
    • Fiber Crops
    • Cover Crops and Hay
    • Agricultural Residues
    • Herbaceous Energy Crops
    • Forest Residues
    • Forest Resources
    • Woody Energy Crops
  • Products/Process Outputs
    • Other Process Output
Linkage Strength: (hover for description)
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Analytical Purpose
Supply Chain Elements
Biomass Supply
Feedstock Logistics
Conversion
Distribution
End Use

Feasibility / Implementation Models

Biomass Logistics Model (BLM)
Supply chain elements: Biomass Supply, Feedstock Logistics, Conversion
Stochastic Technoeconomic Model (STEM)
Supply chain elements: Biomass Supply, Feedstock Logistics

Integrated Scenario Assessment Models

Companion Market Model (CMM)
Supply chain elements: Biomass Supply, Feedstock Logistics, Conversion, Distribution, End Use
View map of all models
Information last updated: Sep. 17, 2019 13:45:46 EDT